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Shanghai Containerized Freight Index on Kalshi
If the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index composite index for the final publication designated for calendar year 2026 is above 5,000, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation, Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index.
Market says (typical open contract)
20%
Median YES price across 17 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
41% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21¢ (now) | 1.2¢ | $2.77 | 22.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Shanghai Containerized Freight Index composite index for the final publication designated for calendar year 2026 be between 4,000 and 4,499.99? · 4,000 to 4,499.99 | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 13,098 | Dec 25, 06:59 UTC |
| Will Shanghai Containerized Freight Index composite index for the final publication designated for calendar year 2026 be above 5,000? · Above 5,000 | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 4,380 | Dec 25, 06:59 UTC |
| Will Shanghai Containerized Freight Index composite index for the final publication designated for calendar year 2026 be at least 5,000? · 5,000 or Above | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 2,424 | Dec 25, 06:59 UTC |
| Will Shanghai Containerized Freight Index composite index for the final publication designated for calendar year 2026 be above 3,500? · Above 3,500 | 74¢ | 74% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 2,078 | Dec 25, 06:59 UTC |
| Will Shanghai Containerized Freight Index composite index for the final publication designated for calendar year 2026 be above 4,000? · Above 4,000 | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 1,090 | Dec 25, 06:59 UTC |
| Will Shanghai Containerized Freight Index composite index for the final publication designated for calendar year 2026 be above 4,500? · Above 4,500 | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 1,034 | Dec 25, 06:59 UTC |
| Will Shanghai Containerized Freight Index composite index for the final publication designated for calendar year 2026 be between 3,500 and 3,999.99? · 3,500 to 3,999.99 | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 962 | Dec 25, 06:59 UTC |
| Will Shanghai Containerized Freight Index composite index for the final publication designated for calendar year 2026 be above 3,000? · Above 3,000 | 88¢ | 88% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 910 | Dec 25, 06:59 UTC |
| Will Shanghai Containerized Freight Index composite index for the final publication designated for calendar year 2026 be between 2,000 and 2,499.99? · 2,000 to 2,499.99 | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 416 | Dec 25, 06:59 UTC |
| Will Shanghai Containerized Freight Index composite index for the final publication designated for calendar year 2026 be between 2,500 and 2,999.99? · 2,500 to 2,999.99 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 412 | Dec 25, 06:59 UTC |
| Will Shanghai Containerized Freight Index composite index for the final publication designated for calendar year 2026 be above 2,500? · Above 2,500 | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 394 | Dec 25, 06:59 UTC |
| Will Shanghai Containerized Freight Index composite index for the final publication designated for calendar year 2026 be above 1,500? · Above 1,500 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 328 | Dec 25, 06:59 UTC |
| Will Shanghai Containerized Freight Index composite index for the final publication designated for calendar year 2026 be between 4,500 and 4,999.99? · 4,500 to 4,999.99 | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 317 | Dec 25, 06:59 UTC |
| Will Shanghai Containerized Freight Index composite index for the final publication designated for calendar year 2026 be above 2,000? · Above 2,000 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 152 | Dec 25, 06:59 UTC |
| Will Shanghai Containerized Freight Index composite index for the final publication designated for calendar year 2026 be between 3,000 and 3,499.99? · 3,000 to 3,499.99 | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 98 | Dec 25, 06:59 UTC |
| Will Shanghai Containerized Freight Index composite index for the final publication designated for calendar year 2026 be below 1,500? · Below 1,500 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 94 | Dec 25, 06:59 UTC |
| Will Shanghai Containerized Freight Index composite index for the final publication designated for calendar year 2026 be between 1,500 and 1,999.99? · 1,500 to 1,999.99 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 73 | Dec 25, 06:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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