What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 0¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.48.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 1% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 0%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Next SCOTUS justice on Kalshi

If Eric Tung is the first person confirmed by the Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court by January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Library of Congress.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 41 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

1% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
1¢ (now)	0.1¢	$3.47	1.1%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Ted Cruz become the next Justice on the Supreme Court? · Ted Cruz	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	12%	51,485	Jan 21, 04:59 UTC
Will Aileen Cannon become the next Justice on the Supreme Court? · Aileen Cannon	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	3%	50,831	Jan 21, 04:59 UTC
Will Amul Tharpar become the next Justice on the Supreme Court? · Amul Thapar	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	3%	49,955	Jan 21, 04:59 UTC
Will Andrew Oldham become the next Justice on the Supreme Court? · Andrew Oldham	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	43,999	Jan 21, 04:59 UTC
Will Gregory G. Katsas become the next Justice on the Supreme Court? · Gregory G. Katsas	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	35,415	Jan 21, 04:59 UTC
Will James Ho become the next Justice on the Supreme Court? · James Ho	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	34,057	Jan 21, 04:59 UTC
Will Mike Lee become the next Justice on the Supreme Court? · Mike Lee	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	8%	26,439	Jan 21, 04:59 UTC
Will Tom Cotton become the next Justice on the Supreme Court? · Tom Cotton	1¢	1%	0.0¢	—	1%	26,273	Jan 21, 04:59 UTC
Will Stephanos Bibas become the next Justice on the Supreme Court? · Stephanos Bibas	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	25,682	Jan 21, 04:59 UTC
Will Morse Tan become the next Justice on the Supreme Court? · Morse Tan	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	24,895	Jan 21, 04:59 UTC
Will Joan Larsen become the next Justice on the Supreme Court? · Joan Larsen	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	24,020	Jan 21, 04:59 UTC
Will Kate Comerford Todd become the next Justice on the Supreme Court? · Kate Comerford Todd	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	23,301	Jan 21, 04:59 UTC
Will Britt Grant become the next Justice on the Supreme Court? · Britt Grant	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	22,277	Jan 21, 04:59 UTC
Will D. John Sauer become the next Justice on the Supreme Court? · D. John Sauer	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	21,421	Jan 21, 04:59 UTC
Will Ron DeSantis become the next Justice on the Supreme Court? · Ron DeSantis	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	19,598	Jan 21, 04:59 UTC
Will Lawrence VanDyke become the next Justice on the Supreme Court? · Lawrence VanDyke	1¢	1%	0.0¢	—	1%	18,513	Jan 21, 04:59 UTC
Will Kathryn Mizelle become the next Justice on the Supreme Court? · Kathryn Mizelle	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	18,119	Jan 21, 04:59 UTC
Will Emil Bove become the next Justice on the Supreme Court? · Emil Bove	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	18,032	Jan 21, 04:59 UTC
Will Kevin Newsom become the next Justice on the Supreme Court? · Kevin Newsom	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	17,876	Jan 21, 04:59 UTC
Will Neomi Rao become the next Justice on the Supreme Court? · Neomi Rao	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	3%	17,217	Jan 21, 04:59 UTC
Will Michael Park become the next Justice on the Supreme Court? · Michael Park	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	17,159	Jan 21, 04:59 UTC
Will Barbara Lagoa become the next Justice on the Supreme Court? · Barbara Lagoa	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	16,272	Jan 21, 04:59 UTC
Will Kristen Waggoner become the next Justice on the Supreme Court? · Kristen Waggoner	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	16,204	Jan 21, 04:59 UTC
Will Patrick Bumatay become the next Justice on the Supreme Court? · Patrick Bumatay	1¢	1%	0.0¢	—	1%	15,186	Jan 21, 04:59 UTC
Will Matthew Kacsmaryk become the next Justice on the Supreme Court? · Matthew Kacsmaryk	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	14,643	Jan 21, 04:59 UTC
Will Kenneth Lee become the next Justice on the Supreme Court? · Kenneth Lee	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	14,214	Jan 21, 04:59 UTC
Will Clint Bolick become the next Justice on the Supreme Court? · Clint Bolick	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	13,924	Jan 21, 04:59 UTC
Will David Stras become the next Justice on the Supreme Court? · David Stras	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	13,211	Jan 21, 04:59 UTC
Will Allison Jones Rushing become the next Justice on the Supreme Court? · Allison Jones Rushing	1¢	1%	0.0¢	—	1%	12,977	Jan 21, 04:59 UTC
Will Stuart Kyle Duncan become the next Justice on the Supreme Court? · Stuart Kyle Duncan	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	11,659	Jan 21, 04:59 UTC
Will Mark Martin become the next Justice on the Supreme Court? · Mark Martin	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	11,338	Jan 21, 04:59 UTC
Will Patrick Wyrick become the next Justice on the Supreme Court? · Patrick Wyrick	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	10,948	Jan 21, 04:59 UTC
Will Trevor McFadden become the next Justice on the Supreme Court? · Trevor McFadden	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	10,800	Jan 21, 04:59 UTC
Will Evan Young become the next Justice on the Supreme Court? · Evan Young	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	10,728	Jan 21, 04:59 UTC
Will Allison Eid become the next Justice on the Supreme Court? · Allison Eid	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	10,537	Jan 21, 04:59 UTC
Will Kevin Brobson become the next Justice on the Supreme Court? · Kevin Brobson	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	9,984	Jan 21, 04:59 UTC
Will Steven Menashi become the next Justice on the Supreme Court? · Steven Menashi	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	6,527	Jan 21, 04:59 UTC
Will Matthew Schwartz become the next Justice on the Supreme Court? · Matthew Schwartz	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	5,110	Jan 21, 04:59 UTC
Will Eric Tung become the next Justice on the Supreme Court? · Eric Tung	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	4,345	Jan 21, 04:59 UTC
Will Anna St. John become the next Justice on the Supreme Court? · Anna St. John	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	334	Jan 21, 04:59 UTC

Showing the 40 most traded of 41 open contracts.

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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