What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 55¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.56.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 57% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 55%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Financials

Sea Limited KPI on Kalshi

If Sea Limited reports Above 43000000000.0 shopee gmv in Q3 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Fiscal.ai.

Market says (typical open contract)

55%

Median YES price across 24 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

89% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
55¢ (now)	1.7¢	$1.57	56.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Sea Limited report Above $40 billion shopee gmv in Q3 2026? · Above $40 billion	55¢	55%	1.7¢	—	89%	475	Mar 10, 05:00 UTC
Will Sea Limited report Above 72 million garena quarterly paying users in Q3 2026? · Above 72 million	47¢	47%	1.7¢	—	94%	428	Mar 10, 05:00 UTC
Will Sea Limited report Above 70 million garena quarterly paying users in Q4 2026? · Above 70 million	57¢	57%	1.7¢	—	86%	225	Jun 26, 05:00 UTC
Will Sea Limited report Above $41 billion shopee gmv in Q3 2026? · Above $41 billion	27¢	27%	1.4¢	—	54%	217	Mar 10, 05:00 UTC
Will Sea Limited report Above 75 million garena quarterly paying users in Q3 2026? · Above 75 million	27¢	27%	1.4¢	—	54%	210	Mar 10, 05:00 UTC
Will Sea Limited report Above $43 billion shopee gmv in Q3 2026? · Above $43 billion	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	8%	200	Mar 10, 05:00 UTC
Will Sea Limited report Above 74 million garena quarterly paying users in Q4 2026? · Above 74 million	14¢	14%	0.8¢	—	27%	110	Jun 26, 05:00 UTC
Will Sea Limited report Above $39 billion shopee gmv in Q3 2026? · Above $39 billion	82¢	82%	1.1¢	—	37%	9	Mar 10, 05:00 UTC
Will Sea Limited report Above $41.5 billion shopee gmv in Q3 2026? · Above $41.5 billion	17¢	17%	1.0¢	—	34%	5	Mar 10, 05:00 UTC
Will Sea Limited report Above 66 million garena quarterly paying users in Q4 2026? · Above 66 million	92¢	92%	0.5¢	—	16%	5	Jun 26, 05:00 UTC
Will Sea Limited report Above $39.5 billion shopee gmv in Q3 2026? · Above $39.5 billion	70¢	70%	1.5¢	—	61%	1	Mar 10, 05:00 UTC
Will Sea Limited report Above 69 million garena quarterly paying users in Q3 2026? · Above 69 million	84¢	84%	0.9¢	—	31%	1	Mar 10, 05:00 UTC
Will Sea Limited report Above 81 million garena quarterly paying users in Q3 2026? · Above 81 million	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	9%	1	Mar 10, 05:00 UTC
Will Sea Limited report Above 78 million garena quarterly paying users in Q4 2026? · Above 78 million	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	7%	1	Jun 26, 05:00 UTC
Will Sea Limited report Above $42.5 billion shopee gmv in Q3 2026? · Above $42.5 billion	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	12%	0	Mar 10, 05:00 UTC
Will Sea Limited report Above $42 billion shopee gmv in Q3 2026? · Above $42 billion	10¢	10%	0.7¢	—	21%	0	Mar 10, 05:00 UTC
Will Sea Limited report Above $40.5 billion shopee gmv in Q3 2026? · Above $40.5 billion	40¢	40%	1.7¢	—	81%	0	Mar 10, 05:00 UTC
Will Sea Limited report Above $38.5 billion shopee gmv in Q3 2026? · Above $38.5 billion	90¢	90%	0.7¢	—	21%	0	Mar 10, 05:00 UTC
Will Sea Limited report Above $38 billion shopee gmv in Q3 2026? · Above $38 billion	94¢	94%	0.4¢	—	13%	0	Mar 10, 05:00 UTC
Will Sea Limited report Above $37.5 billion shopee gmv in Q3 2026? · Above $37.5 billion	96¢	96%	0.3¢	—	8%	0	Mar 10, 05:00 UTC
Will Sea Limited report Above $37 billion shopee gmv in Q3 2026? · Above $37 billion	97¢	97%	0.2¢	—	7%	0	Mar 10, 05:00 UTC
Will Sea Limited report Above $36.5 billion shopee gmv in Q3 2026? · Above $36.5 billion	97¢	97%	0.2¢	—	6%	0	Mar 10, 05:00 UTC
Will Sea Limited report Above $36 billion shopee gmv in Q3 2026? · Above $36 billion	97¢	97%	0.2¢	—	6%	0	Mar 10, 05:00 UTC
Will Sea Limited report Above 78 million garena quarterly paying users in Q3 2026? · Above 78 million	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	19%	0	Mar 10, 05:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.