What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 46¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.89.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 48% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 46%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Companies

Sea Garena Annual KPI on Kalshi

If Sea Limited reports Above 176000000000 shopee gmv in fiscal 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Fiscal.ai.

Market says (typical open contract)

46%

Median YES price across 11 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

92% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
46¢ (now)	1.7¢	$1.89	47.7%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Sea Limited report Above $166 billion shopee gmv in fiscal 2026? · Above $166 billion	46¢	46%	1.7¢	—	92%	205	May 27, 05:00 UTC
Will Sea Limited report Above $170 billion shopee gmv in fiscal 2026? · Above $170 billion	16¢	16%	0.9¢	—	32%	5	May 27, 05:00 UTC
Will Sea Limited report Above $168 billion shopee gmv in fiscal 2026? · Above $168 billion	29¢	29%	1.4¢	—	58%	5	May 27, 05:00 UTC
Will Sea Limited report Above $164 billion shopee gmv in fiscal 2026? · Above $164 billion	63¢	63%	1.6¢	—	74%	5	May 27, 05:00 UTC
Will Sea Limited report Above $176 billion shopee gmv in fiscal 2026? · Above $176 billion	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	0	May 27, 05:00 UTC
Will Sea Limited report Above $174 billion shopee gmv in fiscal 2026? · Above $174 billion	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	8%	0	May 27, 05:00 UTC
Will Sea Limited report Above $172 billion shopee gmv in fiscal 2026? · Above $172 billion	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	15%	0	May 27, 05:00 UTC
Will Sea Limited report Above $162 billion shopee gmv in fiscal 2026? · Above $162 billion	78¢	78%	1.2¢	—	43%	0	May 27, 05:00 UTC
Will Sea Limited report Above $160 billion shopee gmv in fiscal 2026? · Above $160 billion	90¢	90%	0.7¢	—	21%	0	May 27, 05:00 UTC
Will Sea Limited report Above $158 billion shopee gmv in fiscal 2026? · Above $158 billion	95¢	95%	0.3¢	—	10%	0	May 27, 05:00 UTC
Will Sea Limited report Above $156 billion shopee gmv in fiscal 2026? · Above $156 billion	97¢	97%	0.2¢	—	7%	0	May 27, 05:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.