What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 60¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.40.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 62% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 60%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Elections

Senate Race Winner? on Kalshi

If the person sworn in to the Class II Senate seat of Texas pursuant to the November 2, 2032 election is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Fox News, Associated Press, Decision Desk HQ, United States Congress, NBC News, New York Times, CNN, CBS News, ABC News.

Market says (typical open contract)

60%

Median YES price across 12 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

80% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
60¢ (now)	1.7¢	$1.40	61.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Kentucky Senate race? · Democratic party	14¢	14%	0.8¢	—	27%	252	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC
Will the Democratic Party win the 2027 Minnesota Senate race? · Democratic party	88¢	88%	0.7¢	—	23%	111	Nov 02, 14:00 UTC
Will the Republican Party win the 2032 Texas Senate race? · Republican party	40¢	40%	1.7¢	—	80%	0	Nov 02, 14:00 UTC
Will the Democratic Party win the 2032 Texas Senate race? · Democratic party	60¢	60%	1.7¢	—	80%	0	Nov 02, 14:00 UTC
Will the Republican Party win the 2030 Texas Senate race? · Republican party	74¢	74%	1.3¢	—	51%	0	Nov 05, 15:00 UTC
Will the Democratic Party win the 2030 Texas Senate race? · Democratic party	25¢	25%	1.3¢	—	50%	0	Nov 05, 15:00 UTC
Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Tennessee Senate race? · Republican party	94¢	94%	0.4¢	—	11%	0	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC
Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Tennessee Senate race? · Democratic party	5¢	5%	0.4¢	—	11%	0	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC
Will the Republican Party win the 2030 Mississippi Senate race? · Republican party	94¢	94%	0.4¢	—	11%	0	Nov 05, 15:00 UTC
Will the Democratic Party win the 2030 Mississippi Senate race? · Democratic party	5¢	5%	0.4¢	—	11%	0	Nov 05, 15:00 UTC
Will the Republican Party win the 2027 Minnesota Senate race? · Republican party	11¢	11%	0.7¢	—	22%	0	Nov 02, 14:00 UTC
Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Kentucky Senate race? · Republican party	86¢	86%	0.8¢	—	28%	0	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.