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Serie A Game on Kalshi
If Tie is the result of the Monza vs Fiorentina professional Serie A soccer game originally scheduled for Nov 23, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Fox Sports.
Market says (typical open contract)
24%
Median YES price across 30 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
49% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24¢ (now) | 1.3¢ | $2.66 | 25.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Makers also pay a smaller fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lazio wins · Lazio | 71¢ | 71% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 1,905 | Nov 23, 14:00 UTC |
| Como wins · Como | 74¢ | 74% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 1,528 | Nov 23, 14:00 UTC |
| Roma wins · Roma | 74¢ | 74% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 1,269 | Nov 23, 17:00 UTC |
| Napoli wins · Napoli | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 1,178 | Nov 23, 19:45 UTC |
| Cagliari wins · Cagliari | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 943 | Nov 23, 14:00 UTC |
| Juventus wins · Juventus | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 729 | Nov 24, 11:30 UTC |
| Inter wins · Inter | 61¢ | 61% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 719 | Nov 24, 19:45 UTC |
| Milan wins · Milan | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 532 | Nov 24, 17:00 UTC |
| Bologna wins · Bologna | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 448 | Nov 24, 14:00 UTC |
| Parma Calcio wins · Parma Calcio | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 360 | Nov 23, 17:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 333 | Nov 23, 14:00 UTC |
| Lecce wins · Lecce | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 181 | Nov 23, 14:00 UTC |
| Torino wins · Torino | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 142 | Nov 23, 19:45 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 120 | Nov 23, 14:00 UTC |
| Fiorentina wins · Fiorentina | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 29 | Nov 25, 19:45 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 5 | Nov 24, 11:30 UTC |
| Genoa wins · Genoa | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 5 | Nov 24, 14:00 UTC |
| Frosinone wins · Frosinone | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 5 | Nov 24, 17:00 UTC |
| Monza wins · Monza | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 1 | Nov 25, 19:45 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 0 | Nov 25, 19:45 UTC |
| Venezia wins · Venezia | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 0 | Nov 24, 11:30 UTC |
| Udinese wins · Udinese | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 0 | Nov 24, 14:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 0 | Nov 24, 14:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 0 | Nov 24, 14:00 UTC |
| Sassuolo wins · Sassuolo | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 0 | Nov 24, 14:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 0 | Nov 24, 17:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 0 | Nov 24, 19:45 UTC |
| Atalanta wins · Atalanta | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 0 | Nov 24, 19:45 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 0 | Nov 23, 17:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 0 | Nov 23, 19:45 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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