Markets › Kalshi › Sports
Serie A Leader on Kalshi
If Riccardo Orsolini leads Serie A in goals for the 2026-27 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fox Sports, Sky Sports, NBC Sports, ESPN, CBS Sports.
Market says (typical open contract)
48%
Median YES price across 20 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
95% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 47¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.86 | 48.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Christian Pulisic lead Serie A in goals for the 2026-27 season? · Christian Pulisic | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 5 | Jun 07, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Nico Paz lead Serie A in goals for the 2026-27 season? · Nico Paz | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 1 | Jun 07, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Ange Bonny lead Serie A in goals for the 2026-27 season? · Ange Bonny | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Jun 07, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Riccardo Orsolini lead Serie A in goals for the 2026-27 season? · Riccardo Orsolini | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Jun 07, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Randal Kolo Muani lead Serie A in goals for the 2026-27 season? · Randal Kolo Muani | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Jun 07, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Rasmus Hojlund lead Serie A in goals for the 2026-27 season? · Rasmus Hojlund | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Jun 07, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Nick Woltemade lead Serie A in goals for the 2026-27 season? · Nick Woltemade | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Jun 07, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Nikola Krstovic lead Serie A in goals for the 2026-27 season? · Nikola Krstovic | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Jun 07, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Marcus Thuram lead Serie A in goals for the 2026-27 season? · Marcus Thuram | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Jun 07, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Moise Kean lead Serie A in goals for the 2026-27 season? · Moise Kean | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Jun 07, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Lautaro Martinez lead Serie A in goals for the 2026-27 season? · Lautaro Martinez | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Jun 07, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Kevin De Bruyne lead Serie A in goals for the 2026-27 season? · Kevin De Bruyne | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Jun 07, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Keinan Davis lead Serie A in goals for the 2026-27 season? · Keinan Davis | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Jun 07, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Giovanni Simeone lead Serie A in goals for the 2026-27 season? · Giovanni Simeone | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Jun 07, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Gianluca Scamacca lead Serie A in goals for the 2026-27 season? · Gianluca Scamacca | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Jun 07, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Goncalo Ramos lead Serie A in goals for the 2026-27 season? · Goncalo Ramos | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Jun 07, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Francesco Esposito lead Serie A in goals for the 2026-27 season? · Francesco Esposito | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Jun 07, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Donyell Malen lead Serie A in goals for the 2026-27 season? · Donyell Malen | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Jun 07, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Antonio Raimondo lead Serie A in goals for the 2026-27 season? · Antonio Raimondo | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Jun 07, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Anastasios Douvikas lead Serie A in goals for the 2026-27 season? · Anastasios Douvikas | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Jun 07, 02:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.