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Team Points on Kalshi
If Venezia reaches at least 35 points in the 2026-27 Serie A season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
54%
Median YES price across 80 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
91% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 54¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.61 | 55.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Milan finish the 2026-27 Serie A season with 65+ points? · Milan: 65+ Points | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 4 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Inter finish the 2026-27 Serie A season with 80+ points? · Inter: 80+ Points | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 1 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Udinese finish the 2026-27 Serie A season with 55+ points? · Udinese: 55+ Points | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Venezia finish the 2026-27 Serie A season with 35+ points? · Venezia: 35+ Points | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 0 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Venezia finish the 2026-27 Serie A season with 30+ points? · Venezia: 30+ Points | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 0 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Venezia finish the 2026-27 Serie A season with 25+ points? · Venezia: 25+ Points | 82¢ | 82% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 0 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Venezia finish the 2026-27 Serie A season with 20+ points? · Venezia: 20+ Points | 93¢ | 93% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Udinese finish the 2026-27 Serie A season with 50+ points? · Udinese: 50+ Points | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Udinese finish the 2026-27 Serie A season with 45+ points? · Udinese: 45+ Points | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 0 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Udinese finish the 2026-27 Serie A season with 40+ points? · Udinese: 40+ Points | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 0 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Torino finish the 2026-27 Serie A season with 55+ points? · Torino: 55+ Points | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 0 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Torino finish the 2026-27 Serie A season with 50+ points? · Torino: 50+ Points | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 0 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Torino finish the 2026-27 Serie A season with 45+ points? · Torino: 45+ Points | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 0 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Torino finish the 2026-27 Serie A season with 40+ points? · Torino: 40+ Points | 81¢ | 81% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 0 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Sassuolo finish the 2026-27 Serie A season with 55+ points? · Sassuolo: 55+ Points | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Sassuolo finish the 2026-27 Serie A season with 50+ points? · Sassuolo: 50+ Points | 14¢ | 14% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 0 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Sassuolo finish the 2026-27 Serie A season with 45+ points? · Sassuolo: 45+ Points | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 0 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Sassuolo finish the 2026-27 Serie A season with 40+ points? · Sassuolo: 40+ Points | 53¢ | 53% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Roma finish the 2026-27 Serie A season with 75+ points? · Roma: 75+ Points | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 0 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Roma finish the 2026-27 Serie A season with 70+ points? · Roma: 70+ Points | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 0 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Roma finish the 2026-27 Serie A season with 65+ points? · Roma: 65+ Points | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 0 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Roma finish the 2026-27 Serie A season with 60+ points? · Roma: 60+ Points | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Parma Calcio finish the 2026-27 Serie A season with 50+ points? · Parma Calcio: 50+ Points | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Parma Calcio finish the 2026-27 Serie A season with 45+ points? · Parma Calcio: 45+ Points | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 0 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Parma Calcio finish the 2026-27 Serie A season with 40+ points? · Parma Calcio: 40+ Points | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 0 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Parma Calcio finish the 2026-27 Serie A season with 35+ points? · Parma Calcio: 35+ Points | 31¢ | 31% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 0 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Napoli finish the 2026-27 Serie A season with 80+ points? · Napoli: 80+ Points | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Napoli finish the 2026-27 Serie A season with 75+ points? · Napoli: 75+ Points | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Napoli finish the 2026-27 Serie A season with 70+ points? · Napoli: 70+ Points | 18¢ | 18% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 0 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Napoli finish the 2026-27 Serie A season with 65+ points? · Napoli: 65+ Points | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 0 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Monza finish the 2026-27 Serie A season with 35+ points? · Monza: 35+ Points | 43¢ | 43% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 0 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Monza finish the 2026-27 Serie A season with 30+ points? · Monza: 30+ Points | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 0 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Monza finish the 2026-27 Serie A season with 25+ points? · Monza: 25+ Points | 88¢ | 88% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 0 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Monza finish the 2026-27 Serie A season with 20+ points? · Monza: 20+ Points | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Lecce finish the 2026-27 Serie A season with 45+ points? · Lecce: 45+ Points | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Lecce finish the 2026-27 Serie A season with 40+ points? · Lecce: 40+ Points | 18¢ | 18% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 0 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Lecce finish the 2026-27 Serie A season with 35+ points? · Lecce: 35+ Points | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 0 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Lecce finish the 2026-27 Serie A season with 30+ points? · Lecce: 30+ Points | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 0 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Lazio finish the 2026-27 Serie A season with 65+ points? · Lazio: 65+ Points | 84¢ | 84% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 0 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Will Lazio finish the 2026-27 Serie A season with 60+ points? · Lazio: 60+ Points | 93¢ | 93% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Jun 14, 02:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 80 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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