What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 17¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.91.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 18% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 17%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Elections

Seville municipal election winner on Kalshi

If Vox wins the 2027 Seville municipal election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Ministerio del Interior, Junta Electoral Central.

Market says (typical open contract)

17%

Median YES price across 3 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

34% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
17¢ (now)	1.0¢	$2.91	18.0%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Closes
Will Vox win the 2027 Seville municipal election? · Vox	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	7%	May 22, 14:00 UTC
Will PSOE win the 2027 Seville municipal election? · PSOE	17¢	17%	1.0¢	—	34%	May 22, 14:00 UTC
Will PP win the 2027 Seville municipal election? · PP	79¢	79%	1.2¢	—	42%	May 22, 14:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.