Markets › Kalshi › Economics
South Korea exports YoY on Kalshi
If the South Korea exports YoY for November 2026 is above 95.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation, Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index.
Market says (typical open contract)
53%
Median YES price across 9 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
93% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 53¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.65 | 54.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will South Korea exports YoY for November 2026 be above 85.0%? · Above 85.0% | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 200 | Nov 30, 23:59 UTC |
| Will South Korea exports YoY for November 2026 be above 80.0%? · Above 80.0% | 82¢ | 82% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 200 | Nov 30, 23:59 UTC |
| Will South Korea exports YoY for November 2026 be above 70.0%? · Above 70.0% | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 110 | Nov 30, 23:59 UTC |
| Will South Korea exports YoY for November 2026 be above 110.0%? · Above 110.0% | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 90 | Nov 30, 23:59 UTC |
| Will South Korea exports YoY for November 2026 be above 95.0%? · Above 95.0% | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 0 | Nov 30, 23:59 UTC |
| Will South Korea exports YoY for November 2026 be above 90.0%? · Above 90.0% | 53¢ | 53% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 30, 23:59 UTC |
| Will South Korea exports YoY for November 2026 be above 75.0%? · Above 75.0% | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 0 | Nov 30, 23:59 UTC |
| Will South Korea exports YoY for November 2026 be above 105.0%? · Above 105.0% | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 0 | Nov 30, 23:59 UTC |
| Will South Korea exports YoY for November 2026 be above 100.0%? · Above 100.0% | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 0 | Nov 30, 23:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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