What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 8¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.22.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 9% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 8%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Entertainment

SNL successor on Kalshi

If Maya Rudolph is announced to be succeeding Lorne Michaels as showrunner of SNL before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, ABC, The Information, CBS, The Washington Post, Variety, Axios, CNN, Reuters, the Associated Press, Politico, The New York Times.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 9 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

16% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
8¢ (now)	0.5¢	$3.22	8.5%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Who will be announced as Lorne Michaels' successor at SNL? · Tina Fey	38¢	38%	1.6¢	—	76%	19,910	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Who will be announced as Lorne Michaels' successor at SNL? · Steve Higgins	37¢	37%	1.6¢	—	74%	14,183	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Who will be announced as Lorne Michaels' successor at SNL? · Seth Meyers	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	16%	10,361	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Who will be announced as Lorne Michaels' successor at SNL? · Colin Jost	18¢	18%	1.1¢	—	37%	9,845	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Who will be announced as Lorne Michaels' successor at SNL? · Kenan Thompson	12¢	12%	0.7¢	—	23%	5,461	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Who will be announced as Lorne Michaels' successor at SNL? · Maya Rudolph	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	4,414	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Who will be announced as Lorne Michaels' successor at SNL? · Mike Shoemaker	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	7%	2,211	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Who will be announced as Lorne Michaels' successor at SNL? · Judd Apatow	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	9%	1,246	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Who will be announced as Lorne Michaels' successor at SNL? · Bill Hader	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	865	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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