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Solar capcity installation on Kalshi
If at least 55 GWdc of solar capacity is installed in the US in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Solar Energy Industries Association.
Market says (typical open contract)
59%
Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
82% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 59¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.44 | 60.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will at least 55 GWdc of solar capacity be installed in 2026? · At least 55 GWdc | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 8,633 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will at least 50 GWdc of solar capacity be installed in 2026? · At least 50 GWdc | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 5,198 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will at least 45 GWdc of solar capacity be installed in 2026? · At least 45 GWdc | 59¢ | 59% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 2,974 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will at least 40 GWdc of solar capacity be installed in 2026? · At least 40 GWdc | 89¢ | 89% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 917 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will at least 35 GWdc of solar capacity be installed in 2026? · At least 35 GWdc | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 911 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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