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Who will release a new song? on Kalshi
If Zara Larsson releases a new song in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Spotify.
Market says (typical open contract)
38%
Median YES price across 26 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
77% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 39¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $2.14 | 40.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Migos release a new song 2026? · Migos | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 5,861 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Frank Ocean release a new song 2026? · Frank Ocean | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 5,509 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Weeknd release a new song 2026? · The Weeknd | 84¢ | 84% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 4,861 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Fall Out Boy release a new song 2026? · Fall Out Boy | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 4,680 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Rihanna release a new song 2026? · Rihanna | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 4,628 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will NF release a new song 2026? · NF | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 2,979 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Nicki Minaj release a new song 2026? · Nicki Minaj | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 2,582 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Geese release a new song 2026? · Geese | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 2,488 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Mariah Carey release a new song 2026? · Mariah Carey | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 2,464 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Eminem release a new song 2026? · Eminem | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 2,358 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Coldplay release a new song 2026? · Coldplay | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 2,343 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Billie Eilish release a new song 2026? · Billie Eilish | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 2,309 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Justin Bieber release a new song 2026? · Justin Bieber | 38¢ | 38% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 2,214 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Addison Rae release a new song 2026? · Addison Rae | 41¢ | 41% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 2,124 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Linkin Park release a new song 2026? · Linkin Park | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 1,957 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Bad Bunny release a new song 2026? · Bad Bunny | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 1,927 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kendrick Lamar release a new song 2026? · Kendrick Lamar | 27¢ | 27% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 1,601 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Clairo release a new song 2026? · Clairo | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 1,436 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Olivia Dean release a new song 2026? · Olivia Dean | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 1,245 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Shawn Mendes release a new song 2026? · Shawn Mendes | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 905 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Daft Punk release a new song 2026? · Daft Punk | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 714 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Zara Larsson release a new song 2026? · Zara Larsson | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 562 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Marías release a new song 2026? · The Marías | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 515 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Dua Lipa release a new song 2026? · Dua Lipa | 77¢ | 77% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 446 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Post Malone release a new song 2026? · Post Malone | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 321 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will PARTYNEXTDOOR release a new song 2026? · PARTYNEXTDOOR | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 241 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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