Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Spanish general election margin of victory on Kalshi
If the margin of victory for PSOE in the 2026 Spanish general election is at or above 3%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Ministerio del Interior, Junta Electoral Central.
Market says (typical open contract)
14%
Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
28% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14¢ (now) | 0.8¢ | $3.01 | 14.8% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the margin of victory for PSOE in the 2026 Spanish general election be between 0% and 3%? · PSOE, 0-3% | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 986 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for the People's Party in the 2026 Spanish general election be between 9% and 12%? · People's Party, 9-12% | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 935 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for the People's Party in the 2026 Spanish general election be between 0% and 3%? · People's Party, 0-3% | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 923 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for the People's Party in the 2026 Spanish general election be at least 12%? · People's Party, ≥12% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 629 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for the People's Party in the 2026 Spanish general election be between 3% and 6%? · People's Party, 3-6% | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 597 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for the People's Party in the 2026 Spanish general election be between 6% and 9%? · People's Party, 6-9% | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 573 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for PSOE in the 2026 Spanish general election be at least 3%? · PSOE, ≥3% | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 492 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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