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Spanish general election: how many seats will the People's Party win? on Kalshi
If the People's Party has won at least 150 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Spanish Ministry of the Interior, Junta Electoral Central.
Market says (typical open contract)
61%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
78% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 61¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.37 | 62.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the People's Party win at least 135 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election? · 135 or more | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 200 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the People's Party win at least 120 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election? · 120 or more | 84¢ | 84% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 200 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the People's Party win at least 150 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election? · 150 or more | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the People's Party win at least 145 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election? · 145 or more | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 0 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the People's Party win at least 140 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election? · 140 or more | 21¢ | 21% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 0 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the People's Party win at least 130 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election? · 130 or more | 61¢ | 61% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 0 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the People's Party win at least 125 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election? · 125 or more | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 0 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the People's Party win at least 115 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election? · 115 or more | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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