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SPR level on date on Kalshi
If the “Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR)” value in the U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet for the week ending November 6, 2026 is above 288 million barrels, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Market says (typical open contract)
4%
Median YES price across 12 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
7% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.36 | 4.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will US Strategic Petroleum Reserve for the week ending November 6, 2026 be above 279M? · Above 279M | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 3,045 | Nov 11, 15:29 UTC |
| Will US Strategic Petroleum Reserve for the week ending November 6, 2026 be above 281M? · Above 281M | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 2,193 | Nov 11, 15:29 UTC |
| Will US Strategic Petroleum Reserve for the week ending November 6, 2026 be above 278M? · Above 278M | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 1,815 | Nov 11, 15:29 UTC |
| Will US Strategic Petroleum Reserve for the week ending November 6, 2026 be above 280M? · Above 280M | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 1,413 | Nov 11, 15:29 UTC |
| Will US Strategic Petroleum Reserve for the week ending November 6, 2026 be above 277M? · Above 277M | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 651 | Nov 11, 15:29 UTC |
| Will US Strategic Petroleum Reserve for the week ending November 6, 2026 be above 282M? · Above 282M | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 650 | Nov 11, 15:29 UTC |
| Will US Strategic Petroleum Reserve for the week ending November 6, 2026 be above 288M? · Above 288M | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 50 | Nov 11, 15:29 UTC |
| Will US Strategic Petroleum Reserve for the week ending November 6, 2026 be above 287M? · Above 287M | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 50 | Nov 11, 15:29 UTC |
| Will US Strategic Petroleum Reserve for the week ending November 6, 2026 be above 286M? · Above 286M | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 50 | Nov 11, 15:29 UTC |
| Will US Strategic Petroleum Reserve for the week ending November 6, 2026 be above 285M? · Above 285M | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 50 | Nov 11, 15:29 UTC |
| Will US Strategic Petroleum Reserve for the week ending November 6, 2026 be above 284M? · Above 284M | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 50 | Nov 11, 15:29 UTC |
| Will US Strategic Petroleum Reserve for the week ending November 6, 2026 be above 283M? · Above 283M | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 50 | Nov 11, 15:29 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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