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Trump blanket pardon for administration staff on Kalshi
If Trump issues a single pardon that names at least 25 Trump administration staff, or that covers Trump administration staff as a group by role, agency, or policy area, before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Office of the Pardon Attorney, White House.
Market says (typical open contract)
42%
Median YES price across 3 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
83% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 42¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $2.03 | 43.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump issue a blanket pardon for administration staff before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027 | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 8,092 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump issue a blanket pardon for administration staff before Jan 1, 2028? · Before Jan 1, 2028 | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 2,371 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump issue a blanket pardon for administration staff before Jan 21, 2029? · Before Jan 21, 2029 | 79¢ | 79% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 559 | Jan 21, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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