Markets › Kalshi › Science and Technology
Starship launches to Space on Kalshi
If above 9 Starship launches reach Space in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: SpaceX.
Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 20 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
3% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will exactly 5 Starship launches reach space in 2026? · 5 | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 21,349 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will exactly 6 Starship launches reach space in 2026? · 6 | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 16,059 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will exactly 4 Starship launches reach space in 2026? · 4 | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 13,690 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will exactly 3 Starship launches reach space in 2026? · 3 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 9,202 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will above 4 Starship launches reach space in 2026? · Above 4 | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 8,894 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will exactly 7 Starship launches reach space in 2026? · 7 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 7,654 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will exactly 2 Starship launches reach space in 2026? · 2 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 6,490 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will below 2 Starship launches reach space in 2026? · 1 or below | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 6,088 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will above 5 Starship launches reach space in 2026? · Above 5 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 5,092 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will above 3 Starship launches reach space in 2026? · Above 3 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 3,233 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will exactly 8 Starship launches reach space in 2026? · 8 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 2,260 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will above 10 or above Starship launches reach space in 2026? · 10 or above | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,570 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will exactly 9 Starship launches reach space in 2026? · 9 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,276 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will above 6 Starship launches reach space in 2026? · Above 6 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 905 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will above 7 Starship launches reach space in 2026? · Above 7 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 399 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will above 8 Starship launches reach space in 2026? · Above 8 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 232 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will above 11 Starship launches reach space in 2026? · Above 11 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 142 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will above 12 Starship launches reach space in 2026? · Above 12 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 63 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will above 10 Starship launches reach space in 2026? · Above 10 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 60 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will above 9 Starship launches reach space in 2026? · Above 9 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 35 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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