What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 2¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.45.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 2% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 2%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

51st state on Kalshi

If the 51st state is any part of Cuba before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Library of Congress.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

3% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
2¢ (now)	0.1¢	$3.43	2.1%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Any part of Greenland be the 51st U.S. state before Jan 20, 2029? · Greenland	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	461,988	Jan 20, 15:00 UTC
Will any part of Venezuela be the 51st U.S. state before Jan 20, 2029? · Venezuela	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	445,318	Jan 20, 15:00 UTC
Will any part of Cuba be the 51st U.S. state before Jan 20, 2029? · Cuba	4¢	4%	0.2¢	—	7%	274,460	Jan 20, 15:00 UTC
Will Any part of Canada be the 51st U.S. state before Jan 20, 2029? · Canada	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	3%	238,613	Jan 20, 15:00 UTC
Will Puerto Rico be the 51st U.S. state before Jan 20, 2029? · Puerto Rico	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	227,773	Jan 20, 15:00 UTC
Will D.C. be the 51st U.S. state before Jan 20, 2029? · District of Columbia	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	137,647	Jan 20, 15:00 UTC
Will any part of Colombia be the 51st U.S. state before Jan 20, 2029? · Colombia	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	129,041	Jan 20, 15:00 UTC
Will Guam be the 51st U.S. state before Jan 20, 2029? · Guam	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	87,491	Jan 20, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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