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Colorado Legislature race winner? on Kalshi
If the Republican Party wins the 2028 general election for Colorado Senate District 33, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Associated Press, New York Times, NBC News, Fox News, CNN, CBS News, ABC News, Colorado Secretary of State.
Market says (typical open contract)
55%
Median YES price across 166 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
90% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 55¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.57 | 56.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Colorado House District 39 election? · Democratic party | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 25 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Colorado House District 5 election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 10 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Colorado House District 60 election? · Democratic party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Colorado Senate District 33 election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Colorado Senate District 33 election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Colorado Senate District 31 election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Colorado Senate District 31 election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Colorado Senate District 29 election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Colorado Senate District 29 election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Colorado Senate District 28 election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Colorado Senate District 28 election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Colorado Senate District 26 election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Colorado Senate District 26 election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Colorado Senate District 23 election? · Republican party | 82¢ | 82% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Colorado Senate District 23 election? · Democratic party | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Colorado Senate District 21 election? · Republican party | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Colorado Senate District 21 election? · Democratic party | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Colorado Senate District 19 election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Colorado Senate District 19 election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Colorado Senate District 18 election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Colorado Senate District 18 election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Colorado Senate District 17 election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Colorado Senate District 17 election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Colorado Senate District 16 election? · Republican party | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Colorado Senate District 16 election? · Democratic party | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Colorado Senate District 14 election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Colorado Senate District 14 election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Colorado Senate District 13 election? · Republican party | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Colorado Senate District 13 election? · Democratic party | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Colorado Senate District 12 election? · Republican party | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Colorado Senate District 12 election? · Democratic party | 82¢ | 82% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Colorado Senate District 10 election? · Republican party | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Colorado Senate District 10 election? · Democratic party | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Colorado Senate District 6 election? · Republican party | 27¢ | 27% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Colorado Senate District 6 election? · Democratic party | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Colorado Senate District 5 election? · Republican party | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Colorado Senate District 5 election? · Democratic party | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Colorado Senate District 2 election? · Republican party | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Colorado Senate District 2 election? · Democratic party | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Colorado House District 65 election? · Republican party | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 166 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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