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Florida Legislature race winner? on Kalshi
If the Republican Party wins the 2028 general election for Florida Senate District 39, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Associated Press, New York Times, the Florida Division of Elections, NBC News, Fox News, CNN, CBS News, ABC News.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 280 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
99% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 49¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.79 | 50.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Florida Senate District 39 election? · Republican party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Florida Senate District 39 election? · Democratic party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Florida Senate District 37 election? · Republican party | 35¢ | 35% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Florida Senate District 37 election? · Democratic party | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Florida Senate District 35 election? · Republican party | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Florida Senate District 35 election? · Democratic party | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Florida Senate District 33 election? · Republican party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Florida Senate District 33 election? · Democratic party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Florida Senate District 31 election? · Republican party | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Florida Senate District 31 election? · Democratic party | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Florida Senate District 29 election? · Republican party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Florida Senate District 29 election? · Democratic party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Florida Senate District 27 election? · Republican party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Florida Senate District 27 election? · Democratic party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Florida Senate District 25 election? · Republican party | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Florida Senate District 25 election? · Democratic party | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Florida Senate District 23 election? · Republican party | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Florida Senate District 23 election? · Democratic party | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Florida Senate District 21 election? · Republican party | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Florida Senate District 21 election? · Democratic party | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Florida Senate District 19 election? · Republican party | 93¢ | 93% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Florida Senate District 19 election? · Democratic party | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Florida Senate District 17 election? · Republican party | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Florida Senate District 17 election? · Democratic party | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Florida Senate District 15 election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Florida Senate District 15 election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Florida Senate District 13 election? · Republican party | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Florida Senate District 13 election? · Democratic party | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Florida Senate District 11 election? · Republican party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Florida Senate District 11 election? · Democratic party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Florida Senate District 9 election? · Republican party | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Florida Senate District 9 election? · Democratic party | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Florida Senate District 7 election? · Republican party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Florida Senate District 7 election? · Democratic party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Florida Senate District 5 election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Florida Senate District 5 election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Florida Senate District 3 election? · Republican party | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Florida Senate District 3 election? · Democratic party | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Florida Senate District 1 election? · Republican party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Florida Senate District 1 election? · Democratic party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 280 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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