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Illinois Legislature race winner? on Kalshi
If the Republican Party wins the 2028 general election for Illinois Senate District 58, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Associated Press, Illinois State Board of Elections, New York Times, NBC News, Fox News, CNN, CBS News, ABC News.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 314 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
100% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ (now) | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Illinois House District 26 election? · Republican party | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 205 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Illinois House District 64 election? · Democratic party | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 21 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Illinois House District 27 election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 20 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Illinois House District 104 election? · Democratic party | 77¢ | 77% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 6 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Illinois Senate District 58 election? · Republican party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Illinois Senate District 58 election? · Democratic party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Illinois Senate District 57 election? · Republican party | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Illinois Senate District 57 election? · Democratic party | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Illinois Senate District 55 election? · Republican party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Illinois Senate District 55 election? · Democratic party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Illinois Senate District 54 election? · Republican party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Illinois Senate District 54 election? · Democratic party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Illinois Senate District 52 election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Illinois Senate District 52 election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Illinois Senate District 51 election? · Republican party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Illinois Senate District 51 election? · Democratic party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Illinois Senate District 49 election? · Republican party | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Illinois Senate District 49 election? · Democratic party | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Illinois Senate District 48 election? · Republican party | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Illinois Senate District 48 election? · Democratic party | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Illinois Senate District 46 election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Illinois Senate District 46 election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Illinois Senate District 45 election? · Republican party | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Illinois Senate District 45 election? · Democratic party | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Illinois Senate District 43 election? · Republican party | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Illinois Senate District 43 election? · Democratic party | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Illinois Senate District 42 election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Illinois Senate District 42 election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Illinois Senate District 40 election? · Republican party | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Illinois Senate District 40 election? · Democratic party | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Illinois Senate District 39 election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Illinois Senate District 39 election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Illinois Senate District 37 election? · Republican party | 93¢ | 93% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Illinois Senate District 37 election? · Democratic party | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Illinois Senate District 36 election? · Republican party | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Illinois Senate District 36 election? · Democratic party | 84¢ | 84% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Illinois Senate District 34 election? · Republican party | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Illinois Senate District 34 election? · Democratic party | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Illinois Senate District 33 election? · Republican party | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Illinois Senate District 33 election? · Democratic party | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 314 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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