Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Vermont Legislature race winner? on Kalshi
If the Republican Party wins the 2028 general election for Vermont Senate Orleans, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Associated Press, New York Times, NBC News, Fox News, CNN, CBS News, ABC News, Vermont Secretary of State.
Market says (typical open contract)
52%
Median YES price across 146 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
97% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 52¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.68 | 53.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Vermont Senate Orleans election? · Republican party | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Vermont Senate Orleans election? · Democratic party | 73¢ | 73% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Vermont Senate Orange election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Vermont Senate Orange election? · Democratic party | 93¢ | 93% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Vermont Senate Lamoille election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Vermont Senate Lamoille election? · Democratic party | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Vermont Senate Grand Isle election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Vermont Senate Grand Isle election? · Democratic party | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Vermont Senate Essex election? · Republican party | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Vermont Senate Essex election? · Democratic party | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Vermont Senate Chittenden North election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Vermont Senate Chittenden North election? · Democratic party | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Vermont Senate Caledonia election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Vermont Senate Caledonia election? · Democratic party | 93¢ | 93% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Vermont House Windsor-Windham election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Vermont House Windsor-Windham election? · Democratic party | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Vermont House Windsor-Orange-1 election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Vermont House Windsor-Orange-1 election? · Democratic party | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Vermont House Windsor-Addison election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Vermont House Windsor-Addison election? · Democratic party | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Vermont House Windsor-5 election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Vermont House Windsor-5 election? · Democratic party | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Vermont House Windsor-4 election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Vermont House Windsor-4 election? · Democratic party | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Vermont House Windsor-2 election? · Republican party | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Vermont House Windsor-2 election? · Democratic party | 90¢ | 90% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Vermont House Windham-Windsor-Bennington election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Vermont House Windham-Windsor-Bennington election? · Democratic party | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Vermont House Washington-6 election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Vermont House Washington-6 election? · Democratic party | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Vermont House Washington-5 election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Vermont House Washington-5 election? · Democratic party | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Vermont House Windham-9 election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Vermont House Windham-9 election? · Democratic party | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Vermont House Windham-8 election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Vermont House Windham-8 election? · Democratic party | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Vermont House Windham-7 election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Vermont House Windham-7 election? · Democratic party | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Vermont House Windham-6 election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Vermont House Windham-6 election? · Democratic party | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 146 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.