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Constellation Brands KPI on Kalshi
If Constellation Brands, Inc. reports Above 98000000 beer shipments (24-pack, 12-oz case equivalents) in Q3 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fiscal.ai.
Market says (typical open contract)
56%
Median YES price across 11 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
88% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 56¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.54 | 57.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Constellation Brands, Inc. report Above 86 million beer shipments (24-pack, 12-oz case equivalents) in Q3 2027? · Above 86 million | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 2,950 | Jul 29, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Constellation Brands, Inc. report Above 110 million beer shipments (24-pack, 12-oz case equivalents) in Q3 2027? · Above 110 million | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 2,736 | Jul 29, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Constellation Brands, Inc. report Above 106 million beer shipments (24-pack, 12-oz case equivalents) in Q3 2027? · Above 106 million | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 1,886 | Jul 29, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Constellation Brands, Inc. report Above 94 million beer shipments (24-pack, 12-oz case equivalents) in Q3 2027? · Above 94 million | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 1,300 | Jul 29, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Constellation Brands, Inc. report Above 100 million beer shipments (24-pack, 12-oz case equivalents) in Q3 2027? · Above 100 million | 37¢ | 37% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 1,257 | Jul 29, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Constellation Brands, Inc. report Above 96 million beer shipments (24-pack, 12-oz case equivalents) in Q3 2027? · Above 96 million | 84¢ | 84% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 1,240 | Jul 29, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Constellation Brands, Inc. report Above 98 million beer shipments (24-pack, 12-oz case equivalents) in Q3 2027? · Above 98 million | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 1,161 | Jul 29, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Constellation Brands, Inc. report Above 102 million beer shipments (24-pack, 12-oz case equivalents) in Q3 2027? · Above 102 million | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 705 | Jul 29, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Constellation Brands, Inc. report Above 104 million beer shipments (24-pack, 12-oz case equivalents) in Q3 2027? · Above 104 million | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 300 | Jul 29, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Constellation Brands, Inc. report Above 92 million beer shipments (24-pack, 12-oz case equivalents) in Q3 2027? · Above 92 million | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Jul 29, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Constellation Brands, Inc. report Above 90 million beer shipments (24-pack, 12-oz case equivalents) in Q3 2027? · Above 90 million | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Jul 29, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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