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Constellation Brands KPI on Kalshi
If Constellation Brands, Inc. reports above 440000000 Total Beer Shipments (24-pack, 12-oz Case Equivalents) in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fiscal.ai.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
100% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ (now) | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Constellation Brands, Inc. report above 425 million Total Beer Shipments (24-pack, 12-oz Case Equivalents) in 2027? · Above 425 million | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 247 | Oct 29, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Constellation Brands, Inc. report above 420 million Total Beer Shipments (24-pack, 12-oz Case Equivalents) in 2027? · Above 420 million | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 205 | Oct 29, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Constellation Brands, Inc. report above 410 million Total Beer Shipments (24-pack, 12-oz Case Equivalents) in 2027? · Above 410 million | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 200 | Oct 29, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Constellation Brands, Inc. report above 430 million Total Beer Shipments (24-pack, 12-oz Case Equivalents) in 2027? · Above 430 million | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 9 | Oct 29, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Constellation Brands, Inc. report above 440 million Total Beer Shipments (24-pack, 12-oz Case Equivalents) in 2027? · Above 440 million | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 2 | Oct 29, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Constellation Brands, Inc. report above 415 million Total Beer Shipments (24-pack, 12-oz Case Equivalents) in 2027? · Above 415 million | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Oct 29, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Constellation Brands, Inc. report above 405 million Total Beer Shipments (24-pack, 12-oz Case Equivalents) in 2027? · Above 405 million | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Oct 29, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Constellation Brands, Inc. report above 435 million Total Beer Shipments (24-pack, 12-oz Case Equivalents) in 2027? · Above 435 million | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Oct 29, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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