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Traffic through the Suez Canal on Kalshi
If the number of transit calls through the Suez Canal as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 330 from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: IMF PortWatch.
Market says (typical open contract)
55%
Median YES price across 16 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
90% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 55¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.57 | 56.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be more than 310 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Nov 2, 2026 to Nov 8, 2026? · Above 310 | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 32,697 | Nov 10, 14:00 UTC |
| Will there be more than 290 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Nov 2, 2026 to Nov 8, 2026? · Above 290 | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 32,221 | Nov 10, 14:00 UTC |
| Will there be more than 260 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Nov 2, 2026 to Nov 8, 2026? · Above 260 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 27,233 | Nov 10, 14:00 UTC |
| Will there be more than 320 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Nov 2, 2026 to Nov 8, 2026? · Above 320 | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 22,697 | Nov 10, 14:00 UTC |
| Will there be more than 280 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Nov 2, 2026 to Nov 8, 2026? · Above 280 | 90¢ | 90% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 20,037 | Nov 10, 14:00 UTC |
| Will there be more than 270 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Nov 2, 2026 to Nov 8, 2026? · Above 270 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 15,855 | Nov 10, 14:00 UTC |
| Will there be more than 330 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Nov 2, 2026 to Nov 8, 2026? · Above 330 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 8,440 | Nov 10, 14:00 UTC |
| Will there be more than 300 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Nov 2, 2026 to Nov 8, 2026? · Above 300 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 6,533 | Nov 10, 14:00 UTC |
| Will there be more than 270 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026? · Above 270 | 90¢ | 90% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 2,003 | Nov 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Will there be more than 330 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026? · Above 330 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 448 | Nov 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Will there be more than 300 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026? · Above 300 | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 77 | Nov 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Will there be more than 310 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026? · Above 310 | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 20 | Nov 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Will there be more than 290 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026? · Above 290 | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 16 | Nov 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Will there be more than 280 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026? · Above 280 | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 1 | Nov 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Will there be more than 320 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026? · Above 320 | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 0 | Nov 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Will there be more than 260 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026? · Above 260 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 17, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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