What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 10¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.17.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 10% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 10%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Entertainment

who will be cast in summer house on Kalshi

If Meija Moreno is cast in Summer House: Season 11 before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, the Associated Press, Politico, The Hollywood Reporter.

Market says (typical open contract)

10%

Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

19% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
10¢ (now)	0.6¢	$3.15	10.6%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Dara Levitan be cast in Summer House: Season 11? · Dara Levitan	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	17,647	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Levi Sebree be cast in Summer House: Season 11? · Levi Sebree	14¢	14%	0.8¢	—	27%	13,629	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will West Wilson be cast in Summer House: Season 11? · West Wilson	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	19%	12,622	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Amanda Batula be cast in Summer House: Season 11? · Amanda Batula	7¢	7%	0.5¢	—	14%	11,398	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Meija Moreno be cast in Summer House: Season 11? · Meija Moreno	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	20%	9,168	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Ben Waddell be cast in Summer House: Season 11? · Ben Waddell	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	19%	8,763	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.