What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 20¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.80.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 21% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 20%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Companies

Sam Altman super-voting shares at IPO on Kalshi

If Sam Altman holds shares of OpenAI carrying more votes per share than the shares sold to the public immediately following OpenAI's IPO, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: The Washington Post, the New York Times, MS Now, ABC, NBC, BBC, CNBC, The Wall Street Journal, CBS, Fox News, the Associated Press, CNN, Reuters, Bloomberg News, SEC filings.

Market says (typical open contract)

20%

Median YES price across 1 open contract, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

40% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
20¢ (now)	1.1¢	$2.80	21.1%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Sam Altman hold super-voting OpenAI shares at IPO? · Will Sam Altman hold super-voting OpenAI shares at IPO?	20¢	20%	1.1¢	—	40%	3,687	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.