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Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act? on Kalshi
If Raphael Warnock votes for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE) in the Senate before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Library of Congress.
Market says (typical open contract)
3%
Median YES price across 12 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
6% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3¢ (now) | 0.2¢ | $3.40 | 3.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mike Lee vote for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)? · Mike Lee | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 12,153 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ruben Gallego vote for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)? · Ruben Gallego | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 10,594 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kirsten Gillibrand vote for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)? · Kirsten Gillibrand | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 8,240 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Josh Hawley vote for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)? · Josh Hawley | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 7,241 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jerry Moran vote for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)? · Jerry Moran | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 6,406 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Mark Warner vote for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)? · Mark Warner | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 5,279 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Rand Paul vote for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)? · Rand Paul | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 3,367 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Angela Alsobrooks vote for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)? · Angela Alsobrooks | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 3,303 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Catherine Cortez Masto vote for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)? · Catherine Cortez Masto | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 3,111 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Lisa Blunt Rochester vote for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)? · Lisa Blunt Rochester | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 2,514 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Raphael Warnock vote for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)? · Raphael Warnock | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 1,952 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Andy Kim vote for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)? · Andy Kim | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 700 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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