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swift wedding dress on Kalshi
If Taylor Swift is documented wearing a wedding dress designed by Zuhair Murad during Taylor Swift's first wedding ceremony to Travis Kelce during which they exchange wedding vows, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Market says (typical open contract)
8%
Median YES price across 30 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
15% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8¢ (now) | 0.5¢ | $3.22 | 8.5% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Taylor Swift wear a wedding dress designed by Dior at Taylor Swift's first wedding ceremony to Travis Kelce during which they exchange wedding vows? · Dior | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 75,889 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Taylor Swift wear a wedding dress designed by Alexander McQueen at Taylor Swift's first wedding ceremony to Travis Kelce during which they exchange wedding vows? · Alexander McQueen | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 22,267 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Taylor Swift wear a wedding dress designed by Monique Lhuillier at Taylor Swift's first wedding ceremony to Travis Kelce during which they exchange wedding vows? · Monique Lhuillier | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 18,258 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Taylor Swift wear a wedding dress designed by Oscar de la Renta at Taylor Swift's first wedding ceremony to Travis Kelce during which they exchange wedding vows? · Oscar de la Renta | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 17,527 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Taylor Swift wear a wedding dress designed by Vivienne Westwood at Taylor Swift's first wedding ceremony to Travis Kelce during which they exchange wedding vows? · Vivienne Westwood | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 17,175 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Taylor Swift wear a wedding dress designed by Vera Wang at Taylor Swift's first wedding ceremony to Travis Kelce during which they exchange wedding vows? · Vera Wang | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 16,345 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Taylor Swift wear a wedding dress designed by Louis Vuitton at Taylor Swift's first wedding ceremony to Travis Kelce during which they exchange wedding vows? · Louis Vuitton | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 15,943 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Taylor Swift wear a wedding dress designed by Armani Privé at Taylor Swift's first wedding ceremony to Travis Kelce during which they exchange wedding vows? · Armani Privé | 31¢ | 31% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 13,619 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Taylor Swift wear a wedding dress designed by Gucci at Taylor Swift's first wedding ceremony to Travis Kelce during which they exchange wedding vows? · Gucci | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 12,921 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Taylor Swift wear a wedding dress designed by Balmain at Taylor Swift's first wedding ceremony to Travis Kelce during which they exchange wedding vows? · Balmain | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 12,566 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Taylor Swift wear a wedding dress designed by Givenchy at Taylor Swift's first wedding ceremony to Travis Kelce during which they exchange wedding vows? · Givenchy | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 12,558 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Taylor Swift wear a wedding dress designed by Ralph Lauren at Taylor Swift's first wedding ceremony to Travis Kelce during which they exchange wedding vows? · Ralph Lauren | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 12,531 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Taylor Swift wear a wedding dress designed by Chanel at Taylor Swift's first wedding ceremony to Travis Kelce during which they exchange wedding vows? · Chanel | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 12,168 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Taylor Swift wear a wedding dress designed by Berta at Taylor Swift's first wedding ceremony to Travis Kelce during which they exchange wedding vows? · Berta | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 11,975 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Taylor Swift wear a wedding dress designed by Naeem Khan at Taylor Swift's first wedding ceremony to Travis Kelce during which they exchange wedding vows? · Naeem Khan | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 11,087 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Taylor Swift wear a wedding dress designed by Pronovias at Taylor Swift's first wedding ceremony to Travis Kelce during which they exchange wedding vows? · Pronovias | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 10,313 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Taylor Swift wear a wedding dress designed by Ines Di Santo at Taylor Swift's first wedding ceremony to Travis Kelce during which they exchange wedding vows? · Ines Di Santo | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 10,303 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Taylor Swift wear a wedding dress designed by Mira Zwillinger at Taylor Swift's first wedding ceremony to Travis Kelce during which they exchange wedding vows? · Mira Zwillinger | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 10,210 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Taylor Swift wear a wedding dress designed by Dolce & Gabbana at Taylor Swift's first wedding ceremony to Travis Kelce during which they exchange wedding vows? · Dolce & Gabbana | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 9,606 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Taylor Swift wear a wedding dress designed by Galia Lahav at Taylor Swift's first wedding ceremony to Travis Kelce during which they exchange wedding vows? · Galia Lahav | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 9,362 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Taylor Swift wear a wedding dress designed by Valentino at Taylor Swift's first wedding ceremony to Travis Kelce during which they exchange wedding vows? · Valentino | 38¢ | 38% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 9,348 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Taylor Swift wear a wedding dress designed by Elie Saab at Taylor Swift's first wedding ceremony to Travis Kelce during which they exchange wedding vows? · Elie Saab | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 8,898 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Taylor Swift wear a wedding dress designed by Monse at Taylor Swift's first wedding ceremony to Travis Kelce during which they exchange wedding vows? · Monse | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 8,590 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Taylor Swift wear a wedding dress designed by Georges Hobeika at Taylor Swift's first wedding ceremony to Travis Kelce during which they exchange wedding vows? · Georges Hobeika | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 8,435 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Taylor Swift wear a wedding dress designed by Tom Ford at Taylor Swift's first wedding ceremony to Travis Kelce during which they exchange wedding vows? · Tom Ford | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 7,807 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Taylor Swift wear a wedding dress designed by Fendi at Taylor Swift's first wedding ceremony to Travis Kelce during which they exchange wedding vows? · Fendi | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 7,729 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Taylor Swift wear a wedding dress designed by Schiaparelli at Taylor Swift's first wedding ceremony to Travis Kelce during which they exchange wedding vows? · Schiaparelli | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 7,598 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Taylor Swift wear a wedding dress designed by Carolina Herrera at Taylor Swift's first wedding ceremony to Travis Kelce during which they exchange wedding vows? · Carolina Herrera | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 7,464 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Taylor Swift wear a wedding dress designed by Zuhair Murad at Taylor Swift's first wedding ceremony to Travis Kelce during which they exchange wedding vows? · Zuhair Murad | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 6,411 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Taylor Swift wear a wedding dress designed by Reem Acra at Taylor Swift's first wedding ceremony to Travis Kelce during which they exchange wedding vows? · Reem Acra | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 4,528 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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