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Men's T20 Cricket Match on Kalshi
If Lumbini Lions wins the Karnali Yaks vs Lumbini Lions men's professional Nepal Premier League cricket match originally scheduled for Nov 12, 2026 at 6:15 AM EST, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Cricbuzz, ESPN cricinfo, ICC, ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
52%
Median YES price across 14 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
95% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 53¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.65 | 54.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garden Route Badgers wins · Garden Route Badgers | 37¢ | 37% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 1,680 | Nov 12, 20:00 UTC |
| Western Province wins · Western Province | 62¢ | 62% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 1,007 | Nov 12, 20:00 UTC |
| Sudurpaschim Royals wins · Sudurpaschim Royals | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 353 | Nov 12, 15:15 UTC |
| Janakpur Bolts wins · Janakpur Bolts | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 178 | Nov 12, 15:15 UTC |
| Titans (SA) wins · Titans (SA) | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 148 | Nov 13, 20:00 UTC |
| Warriors (SA) wins · Warriors (SA) | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 2 | Nov 13, 20:00 UTC |
| Lumbini Lions wins · Lumbini Lions | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 0 | Nov 14, 15:15 UTC |
| Karnali Yaks wins · Karnali Yaks | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 0 | Nov 14, 15:15 UTC |
| Pokhara Avengers wins · Pokhara Avengers | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 14, 10:45 UTC |
| Biratnagar Kings wins · Biratnagar Kings | 53¢ | 53% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 14, 10:45 UTC |
| Rocks wins · Rocks | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 0 | Nov 13, 15:00 UTC |
| Lions wins · Lions | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 13, 15:00 UTC |
| Stallions CC wins · Stallions CC | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 0 | Nov 12, 21:30 UTC |
| Centurions United Young Stars wins · Centurions United Young Stars | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 0 | Nov 12, 21:30 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.