What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 26¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.61.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 27% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 26%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Taft-Hartley Act on Kalshi

If the President has invoked the Taft-Hartley Act’s national emergency provisions in Section 206 of the Act before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, Bloomberg News, The Information, CBS, NBC, The New York Times, the White House, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, Reuters, the Associated Press, Politico, the President of the United States.

Market says (typical open contract)

26%

Median YES price across 2 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

51% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
26¢ (now)	1.3¢	$2.59	27.3%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Trump invoke the Taft-Hartley Act during his presidency? · Before Jan 20, 2029	26¢	26%	1.3¢	—	51%	4,960	Jan 20, 15:00 UTC
Will Trump invoke the Taft-Hartley Act before Jan 1, 2028? · Before Jan 1, 2028	15¢	15%	0.9¢	—	29%	0	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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