Markets › Kalshi › Politics
Will Taiwan be issued a Level 4 travel warning? on Kalshi
If the U.S. State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: United States Department of State.
Market says (typical open contract)
30%
Median YES price across 4 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
59% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ (now) | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 214,005 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 2028? · Before Jan 1, 2028 | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 47,022 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 2030? · Before Jan 1, 2030 | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 24,527 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 2029? · Before Jan 1, 2029 | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 23,436 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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