What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 11¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.13.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 11% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 11%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Which sectors will Trump tariff? on Kalshi

If the President of the United States has taken any executive action in 2026 imposing tariffs specifically on wind turbines, where the executive action must explicitly reference wind turbines in its title, operative text, or fact sheet (not merely in an attached tariff schedule annex) and set an effective date, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: the White House, Federal Register, the President of the United States.

Market says (typical open contract)

11%

Median YES price across 4 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

21% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
11¢ (now)	0.7¢	$3.12	11.7%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Trump issue any executive action on imposing tariffs specifically on wind turbines, where the executive action must explicitly reference wind turbines in its title, operative text, or fact sheet (not merely in an attached tariff schedule annex) during in 2026? · Wind turbines	9¢	9%	0.5¢	—	17%	13,143	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Trump issue any executive action on imposing tariffs specifically on critical minerals, where the executive action must explicitly reference critical minerals in its title, operative text, or fact sheet (not merely in an attached tariff schedule annex) during in 2026? · Critical minerals	25¢	25%	1.3¢	—	50%	12,559	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Trump issue any executive action on imposing tariffs specifically on Canadian aircraft, where the executive action must explicitly reference Canadian aircraft in its title, operative text, or fact sheet (not merely in an attached tariff schedule annex) during in 2026? · Canadian aircraft	11¢	11%	0.7¢	—	21%	8,921	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Trump issue any executive action on imposing tariffs specifically on foreign-made films, where the executive action must explicitly reference foreign-made films in its title, operative text, or fact sheet (not merely in an attached tariff schedule annex) during in 2026? · Foreign-made films	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	310	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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