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Men's Test Cricket Match on Kalshi
If Zimbabwe A wins the Zimbabwe A vs Ireland A men's professional Test series cricket match originally scheduled for Nov 12, 2026 at 3:00 AM EST, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Cricbuzz, ESPN, ESPNcricinfo, IPL, ICC, BBC Sport.
Market says (typical open contract)
47%
Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
94% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 47¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.86 | 48.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pakistan wins · Pakistan | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 86,380 | Nov 16, 04:30 UTC |
| Draw/Tie wins · Draw/Tie | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 77,418 | Nov 16, 04:30 UTC |
| Sri Lanka wins · Sri Lanka | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 72,437 | Nov 16, 04:30 UTC |
| Zimbabwe A wins · Zimbabwe A | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 19, 08:00 UTC |
| Draw/Tie wins · Draw/Tie | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 19, 08:00 UTC |
| Ireland A wins · Ireland A | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 19, 08:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.