Markets › Kalshi › Financials
Target KPI on Kalshi
If Target Corporation reports Above 9% comparable transactions change (yoy) in Q3 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fiscal.ai.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 25 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
100% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ (now) | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Target Corporation report Above 0% comparable transactions change (yoy) in Q3 2026? · Above 0% | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 12,116 | Jul 29, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Target Corporation report Above 9% comparable transactions change (yoy) in Q3 2026? · Above 9% | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 4,176 | Jul 29, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Target Corporation report Above 3% comparable transactions change (yoy) in Q3 2026? · Above 3% | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 3,916 | Jul 29, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Target Corporation report Above 4.5% comparable transactions change (yoy) in Q3 2026? · Above 4.5% | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 3,850 | Jul 29, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Target Corporation report Above 4% comparable sales growth in Q3 2026? · Above 4% | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 3,367 | Mar 19, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Target Corporation report Above 5% comparable sales growth in Q3 2026? · Above 5% | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 3,204 | Mar 19, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Target Corporation report Above 4.5% comparable sales growth in Q3 2026? · Above 4.5% | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 2,782 | Mar 19, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Target Corporation report Above 5% comparable transactions change (yoy) in Q3 2026? · Above 5% | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 2,683 | Jul 29, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Target Corporation report Above 3.5% comparable transactions change (yoy) in Q3 2026? · Above 3.5% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 2,480 | Jul 29, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Target Corporation report Above 2.5% comparable transactions change (yoy) in Q3 2026? · Above 2.5% | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 2,432 | Jul 29, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Target Corporation report Above 4% comparable transactions change (yoy) in Q3 2026? · Above 4% | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 2,290 | Jul 29, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Target Corporation report Above 2.5% comparable sales growth in Q3 2026? · Above 2.5% | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 1,016 | Mar 19, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Target Corporation report Above 3.5% comparable sales growth in Q3 2026? · Above 3.5% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 1,003 | Mar 19, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Target Corporation report Above 2% comparable sales growth in Q3 2026? · Above 2% | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 898 | Mar 19, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Target Corporation report Above 3% comparable sales growth in Q3 2026? · Above 3% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 693 | Mar 19, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Target Corporation report Above 0.5% comparable sales growth in Q3 2026? · Above 0.5% | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 461 | Mar 19, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Target Corporation report Above 5.5% comparable transactions change (yoy) in Q3 2026? · Above 5.5% | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 190 | Jul 29, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Target Corporation report Above 0% comparable sales growth in Q3 2026? · Above 0% | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 75 | Mar 19, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Target Corporation report Above 5.5% comparable sales growth in Q3 2026? · Above 5.5% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 20 | Mar 19, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Target Corporation report Above 6.5% comparable sales growth in Q3 2026? · Above 6.5% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Mar 19, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Target Corporation report Above 6.5% comparable transactions change (yoy) in Q3 2026? · Above 6.5% | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Jul 29, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Target Corporation report Above 6% comparable transactions change (yoy) in Q3 2026? · Above 6% | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 0 | Jul 29, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Target Corporation report Above 6% comparable sales growth in Q3 2026? · Above 6% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Mar 19, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Target Corporation report Above 1.5% comparable sales growth in Q3 2026? · Above 1.5% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Mar 19, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Target Corporation report Above 1% comparable sales growth in Q3 2026? · Above 1% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Mar 19, 05:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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