What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 70¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.03.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 72% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 70%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Will hemp-derived THC beverages containing 3 milligrams of Total THC be federally legal to sell? on Kalshi

If, as of the end of Nov 22, 2027, a hemp-derived beverage enclosed in a 12-fluid-ounce container that contains exactly 3 milligrams of naturally produced delta-9 THC (and no other cannabinoids) is treated under federal law as lawful to sell, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: United States Government Publishing Office, PACER, United States Code, Federal Register.

Market says (typical open contract)

70%

Median YES price across 4 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

59% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
71¢ (now)	1.4¢	$1.02	72.4%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell on Nov 16, 2026? · On Nov 16, 2026	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	5%	54,754	Nov 17, 04:59 UTC
Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell on Dec 14, 2026? · On Dec 14, 2026	57¢	57%	1.7¢	—	86%	15,546	Dec 15, 04:59 UTC
Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell on Mar 15, 2027? · On Mar 15, 2027	66¢	66%	1.6¢	—	68%	4,064	Mar 16, 03:59 UTC
Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell on Nov 22, 2027? · On Nov 22, 2027	70¢	70%	1.5¢	—	59%	1,552	Nov 23, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.