What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 2¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.41.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 3% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 2%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Entertainment

THIRD BEST ALBUM on Kalshi

If The Great Divide: The Last Of The Bugs is the #3 most streamed Album on Spotify's 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Spotify.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 17 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

5% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
3¢ (now)	0.2¢	$3.40	3.2%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love be the #3 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love	43¢	43%	1.7¢	—	86%	1,811	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Will HIT ME HARD AND SOFT be the #3 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · HIT ME HARD AND SOFT	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	1,718	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Will KPop Demon Hunters (Soundtrack from the Netflix Film) be the #3 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · KPop Demon Hunters (Soundtrack from the Netflix Film)	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	1,473	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Will Iceman be the #3 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · Iceman	7¢	7%	0.5¢	—	14%	1,052	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Will petal be the #3 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · petal	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	19%	880	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Will GNX be the #3 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · GNX	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	825	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Will The Life of a Showgirl be the #3 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · The Life of a Showgirl	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	812	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Will Man’s Best Friend be the #3 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · Man’s Best Friend	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	733	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Will So Close To What be the #3 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · So Close To What	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	627	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Will The Art of Loving be the #3 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · The Art of Loving	13¢	13%	0.8¢	—	26%	499	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Will DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS be the #3 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	470	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Will I’m The Problem be the #3 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · I’m The Problem	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	307	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Will DINASTÍA be the #3 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · DINASTÍA	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	180	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Will The Great Divide: The Last Of The Bugs be the #3 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · The Great Divide: The Last Of The Bugs	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	0	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Will Dandelion be the #3 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · Dandelion	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	7%	0	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Will The Great Divide be the #3 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · The Great Divide	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	0	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Will ARIRANG be the #3 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · ARIRANG	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	20%	0	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.