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3rd place Global album USA on Kalshi
If The Great Divide: The Last of the Bugs is the #3 most streamed Album on Spotify's 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Spotify.
Market says (typical open contract)
4%
Median YES price across 17 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
8% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.36 | 4.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will I’m The Problem be the #3 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · I’m The Problem | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 338 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will The Life of a Showgirl be the #3 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · The Life of a Showgirl | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 153 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Dandelion be the #3 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · Dandelion | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 141 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS be the #3 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 87 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will The Art of Loving be the #3 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · The Art of Loving | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 76 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Man’s Best Friend be the #3 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · Man’s Best Friend | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 75 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will With Heaven On Top be the #3 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · With Heaven On Top | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 71 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will GNX be the #3 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · GNX | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 55 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Iceman be the #3 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · Iceman | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 53 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will So Close To What be the #3 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · So Close To What | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 49 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Short n' Sweet be the #3 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · Short n' Sweet | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 44 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will KPop Demon Hunters (Soundtrack from the Netflix Film) be the #3 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · KPop Demon Hunters (Soundtrack from the Netflix Film) | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 38 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will HIT ME HARD AND SOFT be the #3 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · HIT ME HARD AND SOFT | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 38 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love be the #3 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 37 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will The Great Divide: The Last of the Bugs be the #3 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · The Great Divide: The Last of the Bugs | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 4 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will petal be the #3 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · petal | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 4 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will The Great Divide be the #3 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · The Great Divide | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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