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Best LLM on Kalshi
If Z AI has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Epoch AI, Artificial Analysis, LiveBench.
Market says (typical open contract)
6%
Median YES price across 31 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
11% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6¢ (now) | 0.4¢ | $3.29 | 6.4% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? · Z AI | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 5 | Jan 01, 04:58 UTC |
| Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? · MiniMax | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 1 | Jan 01, 04:58 UTC |
| Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? · Xiaomi | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:58 UTC |
| Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? · xAI | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:58 UTC |
| Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? · Upstage | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:58 UTC |
| Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? · Thinking Machines | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:58 UTC |
| Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? · Tencent | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:58 UTC |
| Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? · StepFun | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:58 UTC |
| Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? · Safe Superintelligence | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:58 UTC |
| Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? · Reflection AI | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:58 UTC |
| Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? · Prime Intellect | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:58 UTC |
| Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? · NVIDIA | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:58 UTC |
| Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? · Mistral | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:58 UTC |
| Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? · Microsoft | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:58 UTC |
| Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? · Moonshot | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:58 UTC |
| Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? · Meta | 62¢ | 62% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:58 UTC |
| Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? · LongCat | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:58 UTC |
| Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? · LG AI Research | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:58 UTC |
| Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? · Inception | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:58 UTC |
| Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? · InclusionAI | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:58 UTC |
| Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? · Institute of Foundation Models | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:58 UTC |
| Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? · Huawei | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:58 UTC |
| Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? · Essential AI | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:58 UTC |
| Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? · DeepSeek | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:58 UTC |
| Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? · Cohere | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:58 UTC |
| Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? · China Mobile | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:58 UTC |
| Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? · ByteDance | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:58 UTC |
| Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? · Baidu | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:58 UTC |
| Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? · Arcee AI | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:58 UTC |
| Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? · Amazon | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:58 UTC |
| Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? · Alibaba | 31¢ | 31% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:58 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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