What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 0¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.48.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 1% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 0%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Entertainment

2nd USA SONG on Kalshi

If Earrings is the #2 most streamed Song on Spotify's 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Spotify.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 20 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

1% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
1¢ (now)	0.1¢	$3.47	1.1%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Earrings be the #2 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · Earrings	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	13%	38,573	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Will Man I Need be the #2 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · Man I Need	89¢	89%	0.7¢	—	22%	16,594	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Will Babydoll be the #2 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · Babydoll	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	3,803	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Will The Fate of Ophelia be the #2 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · The Fate of Ophelia	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	3,685	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Will Ordinary be the #2 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · Ordinary	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	3,377	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Will DtMF be the #2 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · DtMF	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	1,532	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Will Golden be the #2 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · Golden	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	1,270	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Will End of Beginning be the #2 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · End of Beginning	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	763	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Will Die With A Smile be the #2 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · Die With A Smile	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	582	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Will back to friends be the #2 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · back to friends	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	479	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Will Your Idol be the #2 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · Your Idol	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	398	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Will Soda Pop be the #2 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · Soda Pop	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	377	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Will Manchild be the #2 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · Manchild	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	338	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Will APT. be the #2 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · APT.	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	319	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Will BIRDS OF A FEATHER be the #2 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · BIRDS OF A FEATHER	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	313	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Will Don’t Say You Love Me be the #2 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · Don’t Say You Love Me	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	295	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Will luther (with sza) be the #2 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · luther (with sza)	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	82	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Will Timeless (feat Playboi Carti) be the #2 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · Timeless (feat Playboi Carti)	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	77	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Will Stateside + Zara Larsson be the #2 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · Stateside + Zara Larsson	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	52	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
Will iloveitiloveitiloveit be the #2 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · iloveitiloveitiloveit	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	50	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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