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MOST STREAMED on Kalshi
If Earrings is the #1 most streamed Song on Spotify's 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Spotify.
Market says (typical open contract)
0%
Median YES price across 24 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
1% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Choosin’ Texas be the #1 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · Choosin’ Texas | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 32,214 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will The Fate of Ophelia be the #1 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · The Fate of Ophelia | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 23,292 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will DtMF be the #1 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · DtMF | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 21,401 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Golden be the #1 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · Golden | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 9,900 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Aperture be the #1 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · Aperture | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 6,960 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will End of Beginning be the #1 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · End of Beginning | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 6,268 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Ordinary be the #1 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · Ordinary | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 5,708 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Stateside be the #1 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · Stateside | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 5,068 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Die With A Smile be the #1 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · Die With A Smile | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 4,953 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will luther (with sza) be the #1 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · luther (with sza) | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3,867 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Man I Need be the #1 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · Man I Need | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,802 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will BIRDS OF A FEATHER be the #1 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · BIRDS OF A FEATHER | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,242 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Soda Pop be the #1 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · Soda Pop | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,926 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will I Just Might be the #1 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · I Just Might | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,533 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Manchild be the #1 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · Manchild | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,526 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will back to friends be the #1 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · back to friends | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,479 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will American Girls be the #1 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · American Girls | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,144 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Don’t Say You Love Me be the #1 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · Don’t Say You Love Me | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,102 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Babydoll be the #1 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · Babydoll | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,066 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will APT. be the #1 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · APT. | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 793 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Earrings be the #1 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · Earrings | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 540 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Your Idol be the #1 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · Your Idol | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 434 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Timeless (feat Playboi Carti) be the #1 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · Timeless (feat Playboi Carti) | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 256 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will iloveitiloveitiloveit be the #1 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? · iloveitiloveitiloveit | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 50 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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