What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 2¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.45.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 2% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 2%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Entertainment

Tour date cancellations on Kalshi

If at least 9 dates from Ed Sheeran's Loop Tour 2026 are cancelled after market issuance and before Dec 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: NME, Pitchfork, Variety, Billboard, the Associated Press, Reuters, The New York Times, Rolling Stone.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 15 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

3% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
1¢ (now)	0.1¢	$3.47	1.1%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will at least 17 dates from Ed Sheeran's Loop Tour 2026 be cancelled? · At least 17 dates cancelled	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	23,973	Dec 12, 04:59 UTC
Will at least 15 dates from Ed Sheeran's Loop Tour 2026 be cancelled? · At least 15 dates cancelled	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	16,364	Dec 12, 04:59 UTC
Will at least 16 dates from Ed Sheeran's Loop Tour 2026 be cancelled? · At least 16 dates cancelled	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	14,279	Dec 12, 04:59 UTC
Will at least 14 dates from Ed Sheeran's Loop Tour 2026 be cancelled? · At least 14 dates cancelled	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	8,217	Dec 12, 04:59 UTC
Will at least 11 dates from Ed Sheeran's Loop Tour 2026 be cancelled? · At least 11 dates cancelled	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	7,992	Dec 12, 04:59 UTC
Will at least 10 dates from Ed Sheeran's Loop Tour 2026 be cancelled? · At least 10 dates cancelled	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	7,885	Dec 12, 04:59 UTC
Will at least 6 dates from Ed Sheeran's Loop Tour 2026 be cancelled? · At least 6 dates cancelled	4¢	4%	0.2¢	—	7%	6,257	Dec 12, 04:59 UTC
Will at least 4 dates from Ed Sheeran's Loop Tour 2026 be cancelled? · At least 4 dates cancelled	12¢	12%	0.7¢	—	23%	5,462	Dec 12, 04:59 UTC
Will at least 13 dates from Ed Sheeran's Loop Tour 2026 be cancelled? · At least 13 dates cancelled	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	4,775	Dec 12, 04:59 UTC
Will at least 7 dates from Ed Sheeran's Loop Tour 2026 be cancelled? · At least 7 dates cancelled	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	4,117	Dec 12, 04:59 UTC
Will at least 9 dates from Ed Sheeran's Loop Tour 2026 be cancelled? · At least 9 dates cancelled	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	4,052	Dec 12, 04:59 UTC
Will at least 8 dates from Ed Sheeran's Loop Tour 2026 be cancelled? · At least 8 dates cancelled	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	3,302	Dec 12, 04:59 UTC
Will at least 5 dates from Ed Sheeran's Loop Tour 2026 be cancelled? · At least 5 dates cancelled	4¢	4%	0.2¢	—	7%	2,136	Dec 12, 04:59 UTC
Will at least 12 dates from Ed Sheeran's Loop Tour 2026 be cancelled? · At least 12 dates cancelled	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	1,978	Dec 12, 04:59 UTC
Will at least 3 dates from Ed Sheeran's Loop Tour 2026 be cancelled? · At least 3 dates cancelled	22¢	22%	1.2¢	—	45%	1,593	Dec 12, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.