Markets › Kalshi › Economics
US annual trade deficit on Kalshi
If the U.S. goods and services deficit for calendar year 2032 is strictly above $900 billion dollars, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation, Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index.
Market says (typical open contract)
72%
Median YES price across 60 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
56% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 72¢ (now) | 1.4¢ | $0.98 | 73.4% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will US trade deficit for 2026 be above 170 billion? · Above 170 billion | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 5,179 | Feb 28, 13:29 UTC |
| Will US trade deficit for 2026 be between 85 billion and 94.9 billion? · 85 billion to 94.9 billion | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 1,323 | Feb 28, 13:29 UTC |
| Will US trade deficit for 2026 be between 55 billion and 64.9 billion? · 55 billion to 64.9 billion | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,193 | Feb 28, 13:29 UTC |
| Will US trade deficit for 2026 be between 65 billion and 74.9 billion? · 65 billion to 74.9 billion | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 1,032 | Feb 28, 13:29 UTC |
| Will US trade deficit for 2026 be between 75 billion and 84.9 billion? · 75 billion to 84.9 billion | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 988 | Feb 28, 13:29 UTC |
| Will US trade deficit for 2026 be between 105 billion and 119.5 billion? · 105 billion to 119.5 billion | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 910 | Feb 28, 13:29 UTC |
| Will US trade deficit for 2026 be between 119.6 billion and 119.9 billion? · 119.6 billion to 119.9 billion | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 907 | Feb 28, 13:29 UTC |
| Will US trade deficit for 2026 be between 45 billion and 54.9 billion? · 45 billion to 54.9 billion | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 900 | Feb 28, 13:29 UTC |
| Will US trade deficit for 2026 be below 45 billion? · Below 45 billion | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 824 | Feb 28, 13:29 UTC |
| Will US trade deficit for 2026 be between 120 billion and 139.9 billion? · 120 billion to 139.9 billion | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 800 | Feb 28, 13:29 UTC |
| Will US trade deficit for 2026 be between 95 billion and 104.9 billion? · 95 billion to 104.9 billion | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 794 | Feb 28, 13:29 UTC |
| Will US trade deficit for 2026 be between 140 billion and 170 billion? · 140 billion to 170 billion | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 718 | Feb 28, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2032 be above $800 billion? · Above $800 billion | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 3 | Feb 07, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2031 be above $600 billion? · Above $600 billion | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 2 | Feb 02, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2032 be above $900 billion? · Above $900 billion | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 0 | Feb 07, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2032 be above $700 billion? · Above $700 billion | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Feb 07, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2032 be above $600 billion? · Above $600 billion | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Feb 07, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2032 be above $500 billion? · Above $500 billion | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Feb 07, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2032 be above $1.2 trillion? · Above $1.2 trillion | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Feb 07, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2032 be above $1.1 trillion? · Above $1.1 trillion | 61¢ | 61% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 0 | Feb 07, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2032 be above $1.0 trillion? · Above $1.0 trillion | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 0 | Feb 07, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2031 be above $900 billion? · Above $900 billion | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 0 | Feb 02, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2031 be above $800 billion? · Above $800 billion | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 0 | Feb 02, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2031 be above $700 billion? · Above $700 billion | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Feb 02, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2031 be above $500 billion? · Above $500 billion | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Feb 02, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2031 be above $1.2 trillion? · Above $1.2 trillion | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Feb 02, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2031 be above $1.1 trillion? · Above $1.1 trillion | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 0 | Feb 02, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2031 be above $1.0 trillion? · Above $1.0 trillion | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 0 | Feb 02, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2030 be above $900 billion? · Above $900 billion | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 0 | Feb 03, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2030 be above $800 billion? · Above $800 billion | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 0 | Feb 03, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2030 be above $700 billion? · Above $700 billion | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Feb 03, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2030 be above $600 billion? · Above $600 billion | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Feb 03, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2030 be above $500 billion? · Above $500 billion | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Feb 03, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2030 be above $1.2 trillion? · Above $1.2 trillion | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 0 | Feb 03, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2030 be above $1.1 trillion? · Above $1.1 trillion | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Feb 03, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2030 be above $1.0 trillion? · Above $1.0 trillion | 65¢ | 65% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 0 | Feb 03, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2029 be above $900 billion? · Above $900 billion | 77¢ | 77% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 0 | Feb 04, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2029 be above $800 billion? · Above $800 billion | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 0 | Feb 04, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2029 be above $700 billion? · Above $700 billion | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 0 | Feb 04, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2029 be above $600 billion? · Above $600 billion | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 0 | Feb 04, 13:29 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 60 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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