What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 5¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.34.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 5% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 5%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Treasury cryptocurrency purchases on Kalshi

If the U.S. Department of the Treasury announces its completed purchase of XRP for a government-held reserve or stockpile before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: the Federal Register, the U.S. Department of the Treasury.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

9% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
5¢ (now)	0.3¢	$3.33	5.3%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will the U.S. Department of the Treasury announce its completed purchase of XRP for a government-held reserve or stockpile before Jan 21, 2029? · XRP	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	11%	3,500	Jan 21, 04:59 UTC
Will the U.S. Department of the Treasury announce its completed purchase of Bitcoin for a government-held reserve or stockpile before Jan 21, 2029? · Bitcoin	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	13%	1,926	Jan 21, 04:59 UTC
Will the U.S. Department of the Treasury announce its completed purchase of Solana for a government-held reserve or stockpile before Jan 21, 2029? · Solana	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	9%	684	Jan 21, 04:59 UTC
Will the U.S. Department of the Treasury announce its completed purchase of Dogecoin for a government-held reserve or stockpile before Jan 21, 2029? · Dogecoin	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	556	Jan 21, 04:59 UTC
Will the U.S. Department of the Treasury announce its completed purchase of Hyperliquid (HYPE) for a government-held reserve or stockpile before Jan 21, 2029? · Hyperliquid	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	11%	448	Jan 21, 04:59 UTC
Will the U.S. Department of the Treasury announce its completed purchase of Ethereum for a government-held reserve or stockpile before Jan 21, 2029? · Ethereum	4¢	4%	0.2¢	—	7%	164	Jan 21, 04:59 UTC
Will the U.S. Department of the Treasury announce its completed purchase of Cardano for a government-held reserve or stockpile before Jan 21, 2029? · Cardano	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	84	Jan 21, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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