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Trump, Zelenskyy and Putin trilateral meeting on Kalshi
If the President of the United States and the President of Russia and the President of Ukraine meet in person together in the same trilateral meeting after Issuance and before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: President of Ukraine, President of Russia, the White House.
Market says (typical open contract)
28%
Median YES price across 3 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
55% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28¢ (now) | 1.4¢ | $2.52 | 29.4% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump, Zelenskyy and Putin meet together before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 14,934 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Trump, Zelenskyy and Putin meet together before Jan 1, 2028? · Before Jan 1, 2028 | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 7,263 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Trump, Zelenskyy and Putin meet together before Jan 20, 2029? · Before Jan 20, 2029 | 38¢ | 38% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 3,035 | Jan 20, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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