What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 16¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.96.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 16% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 16%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Who will Trump endorse for president? on Kalshi

If Donald Trump publicly endorses Ron DeSantis in the 2028 presidential election before Mar 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: official social media accounts controlled by <person>, ABC, The Wall Street Journal, official campaign announcements from <candidate>, Bloomberg News, Politico EU, CBS, NBC, Axios, The Washington Post, CNN, Fox News, The New York Times, Politico, MSNBC, official statements from organizations where <person> holds a leadership position, the Associated Press, Reuters.

Market says (typical open contract)

16%

Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

31% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
16¢ (now)	0.9¢	$2.94	16.9%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Donald Trump endorse Marco Rubio in the 2028 presidential election before Mar 1, 2028? · Marco Rubio	40¢	40%	1.7¢	—	81%	15,586	Mar 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Donald Trump endorse J.D. Vance in the 2028 presidential election before Mar 1, 2028? · J.D. Vance	24¢	24%	1.3¢	—	48%	15,048	Mar 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Donald Trump endorse no one in the 2028 presidential election before Mar 1, 2028? · No one	16¢	16%	0.9¢	—	31%	8,087	Mar 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Donald Trump endorse Himself in the 2028 presidential election before Mar 1, 2028? · Himself	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	15%	7,766	Mar 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Donald Trump endorse Donald J. Trump Jr. in the 2028 presidential election before Mar 1, 2028? · Donald J. Trump Jr.	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	13%	4,952	Mar 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Donald Trump endorse Ron DeSantis in the 2028 presidential election before Mar 1, 2028? · Ron DeSantis	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	9%	3,727	Mar 01, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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