What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 29¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.50.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 30% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 29%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Trump and Flávio Bolsonaro meeting on Kalshi

If Donald Trump and Flávio Bolsonaro meet in person after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: CBS News, Associated Press, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, CNBC, New York Times, Bloomberg, NBC, BBC, The Washington Post, Fox News, Financial Times, CNN, the White House, Politico, ABC News, Reuters.

Market says (typical open contract)

29%

Median YES price across 2 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

57% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
29¢ (now)	1.4¢	$2.49	30.4%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Donald Trump meet in person Flávio Bolsonaro after Issuance and before Dec 1, 2026? · Before Dec 1, 2026	20¢	20%	1.1¢	—	39%	5,386	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Donald Trump meet in person Flávio Bolsonaro after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027	29¢	29%	1.4¢	—	57%	431	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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