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Who will Trump pardon? on Kalshi
If Eric Trump has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: White House, New York Times.
Market says (typical open contract)
30%
Median YES price across 52 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
60% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ (now) | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Barron Trump receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? · Barron Trump | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 72,457 | Jan 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Donald Trump receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? · Donald Trump | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 70,093 | Jan 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Sean Combs receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? · Sean Combs | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 41,620 | Jan 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ghislaine Maxwell receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? · Ghislaine Maxwell | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 36,156 | Jan 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Donald Trump Jr. receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? · Donald Trump Jr. | 74¢ | 74% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 22,748 | Jan 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Sam Bankman-Fried receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? · Sam Bankman-Fried | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 17,796 | Jan 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Edward Snowden receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? · Edward Snowden | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 17,216 | Jan 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Eric Trump receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? · Eric Trump | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 13,475 | Jan 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jared Kushner receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? · Jared Kushner | 71¢ | 71% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 12,445 | Jan 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Elon Musk receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? · Elon Musk | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 10,365 | Jan 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Torence Hatch receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? · Torence Hatch | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 9,757 | Jan 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Larry Householder receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? · Larry Householder | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 9,372 | Jan 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Steve Bannon receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? · Steve Bannon | 38¢ | 38% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 8,915 | Jan 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Pete Hegseth receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? · Pete Hegseth | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 8,708 | Jan 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Alex Mashinsky receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? · Alex Mashinsky | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 7,552 | Jan 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Derek Chauvin receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? · Derek Chauvin | 27¢ | 27% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 6,784 | Jan 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tim Leissner receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? · Tim Leissner | 35¢ | 35% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 6,680 | Jan 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Roger Ver receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? · Roger Ver | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 6,149 | Jan 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Marco Rubio receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? · Marco Rubio | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 6,093 | Jan 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Brian Cole Jr. receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? · Brian Cole Jr. | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 6,080 | Jan 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Prakazrel Michel receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? · Prakazrel Michel | 37¢ | 37% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 5,938 | Jan 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Scott Bessent receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? · Scott Bessent | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 5,898 | Jan 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ty Garbin receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? · Ty Garbin | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 5,783 | Jan 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Susie Wiles receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? · Susie Wiles | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 5,566 | Jan 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Pete Rose receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? · Pete Rose | 41¢ | 41% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 5,311 | Jan 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Todd Blanche receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? · Todd Blanche | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 5,233 | Jan 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will JD Vance receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? · JD Vance | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 4,914 | Jan 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Julian Assange receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? · Julian Assange | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 4,799 | Jan 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Bob Menendez receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? · Bob Menendez | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 4,430 | Jan 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Eric Adams receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? · Eric Adams | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 3,416 | Jan 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Pam Bondi receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? · Pam Bondi | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 3,216 | Jan 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Robin Smith receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? · Robin Smith | 37¢ | 37% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 3,157 | Jan 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Martin Shkreli receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? · Martin Shkreli | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 2,471 | Jan 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Hunter Biden receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? · Hunter Biden | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 2,443 | Jan 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Keonne Rodriguez receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? · Keonne Rodriguez | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 2,256 | Jan 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kisean Anderson receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? · Kisean Anderson | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 1,819 | Jan 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Justin Sun receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? · Justin Sun | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 1,791 | Jan 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Elizabeth Holmes receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? · Elizabeth Holmes | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 1,737 | Jan 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Leon Stanton receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? · Leon Stanton | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 1,620 | Jan 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Matt Borges receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029? · Matt Borges | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 1,598 | Jan 21, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 52 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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