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Trump official renaming actions on Kalshi

If Donald Trump has taken action by personally signing an executive order, presidential memorandum, proclamation, directive, determination, or finding adopting or directing adoption of a replacement for a preexisting official name, or restoring or directing restoration of a prior official name, for United States use after Issuance and before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: the Federal Register, the White House.

Market says (typical open contract)
35%
Median YES price across 3 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
70% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
30¢1.5¢$2.4531.5%
35¢ (now)1.6¢$2.2836.6%
50¢1.8¢$1.7551.7%
70¢1.5¢$1.0571.5%
90¢0.6¢$0.3590.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Will Trump take another official renaming action? · Before Jan 1, 202735¢35%1.6¢—70%617Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Trump take another official renaming action? · Before Dec 1, 202630¢30%1.5¢—59%603Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Trump take another official renaming action? · Before Apr 1, 202764¢64%1.6¢—73%0Apr 01, 03:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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